The 13-week cash flow as the only report that matters in turbulence
Turbulence is not a slow P&L decline. It's a sudden cash flow gap. The 13-week cash flow is the one tool that shows the gap weeks before it becomes fact.
A loss-making P&L for three quarters running is bad news. A negative cash balance next week is a catastrophe. When the market shifts to unpredictable, the only report that actually protects the business is a 13-week cash plan, refreshed weekly.
Why 13 weeks
13 weeks is a quarter. Long enough to see the inflow trend and seasonal peaks. Short enough to stay specific: each week a row, not a month as abstraction. Less than 13 — you only see the next step. More than 26 — the horizon is literature, not a plan.
Structure
INFLOWS — BY CATEGORY × PROBABILITY
Not «sales this week». A: confirmed invoices. B: pipeline at >70% probability. C: probable debt facility or investment tranche. Each its own row. A/B/C is not yet another forecast — it's a working estimate of receipts.
OUTFLOWS — FIXED / VARIABLE / DISCRETIONARY
First two are mandatory. Discretionary is what can slip 2–4 weeks. The split gives a trigger: if closing balance dips below threshold, discretionary auto-pauses without a meeting.
CLOSING BALANCE — THE ALERT
The single line that matters. If closing balance drops below operational reserve threshold (12–16 weeks of payroll + key vendors), it's not a quarterly review item — it's a trigger for next Monday.